Si desigur ca tot in topic sunt si cu asta ajunsa ieri in fata mea eu unul fiin de acord cu sutinera lui Malthus, doar expectanta in timp fiind eronata la el, ceea ce era normal dar pe fond are mare dreptate.
Asadar desi nu este subtitrat puteti urmari clipul ce este publicat din 2015
si oricum poate stiti de Clubul de la Roma intemeiat de dl Pecei, mort in 1982 si problematica "Limitelor cresterii" din ce in ce mai actuala.
La acest link am dat dreptate lui Malthus: : "Malthus was right. Te interval of time is uncetrain but the rest is right."
PS. Autorul raportului cu acest nume publicat in 1972, dl Meadows, implineste in iunie 80 de ani.
De la noi doar Isarescu este membu plin in acest club ultraselect dar abia dupa 2000. Nu stiu de cand este si in Trilaterala.
PS Si inerviul asta al lui Meadows din 2015 este interesant :
https://www.greattransition.org/publication/growing-growing-goneCitez cate ceva din el:
"It is also important to understand the nature of the controversy surrounding the report. At the risk of oversimplification, there are two kinds of people: those who decide which salient facts they like and then try to trace their implications, and those who decide which implications they like and then look for salient facts to justify them. You see this distinction in full display in contemporary debates around climate change."
"...Were there any regional differences in reaction, e.g., between the US and Europe or between developed and developing countries?
Yes. Of course, when we talk about developing countries, we are dealing with a very diverse group. But, viewed together, the developing countries basically said, “You are the ones who caused the problems, and you have to solve them. Our goal is to develop. And don’t use this kind of analysis to block us from causing the same problems that you caused.”
"...White water rafting provides a useful analogy here. When you are going down the river, most of the time it is placid, but every once in a while, you hit the rapids. When it is placid, you can sit back and think where you want to be, how you should time your journey, where you want to stop for lunch, etc. When you are in the rapids, you focus on the moment, desperately trying to keep your boat upright until you return to quiet waters. During the placid moments, it is very useful to have a discussion about where you want to be tomorrow or the day after. When you are in the rapids, you don’t have the luxury of that kind of discussion
. You are trying to survive. Our society has moved into the rapids phase. Climate change is an example of this. There was a period where we had some possibility of influencing future climate by our decisions about the use of fossil fuels. I think that time has passed. Climate change is increasingly dominated by a set of feedback loops—like the methane cycle and the melting of Arctic ice sheets—which are beyond human control. They have come to be the drivers of the system. The dominant drivers of the system
are not people sitting around trying to reach a consensus about which of several different possible outcomes they most prefer. ...Our research and reports are neither optimistic nor pessimistic; they are realistic. In my professional life, I lay out our assumptions, support them with empirical data, and then use computer simulations to trace their implications for the future behavior of the system. When the simulations show that current trends cannot be continued, people with a vested interest in current trends may become pessimistic; I do not. In my personal life, I hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Despre modele:
"By and large, modeling does not change people’s viewpoints. If somebody thinks that nuclear power is a bad idea, and if I make a model which shows that nuclear power is a bad idea, that person will be more than enthusiastic to embrace my models. But if I made a model that says nuclear is a good idea, that person is just going to reject my analysis. "
Despre viitor:
"...Conventional oil production peaked around 2006. Unconventional oil production, e.g., fracking and tar sands, has continued some degree of growth, but it is a totally different matter. Conventional oil is inexpensive and yields a relatively high energy return on investment.
Unconventionals don’t do that. They are expensive, and the net energy return on investment is quite low.
When you don’t have conventional energy sources like oil, you cannot sustain the kind of economic growth rates that we have seen in the past. As a practical matter, then, there is now very little real wealth generation. Most of the economic activity these days consists of those who have more power getting richer by taking away from those with less.
This is why we see widening gaps between rich and poor....In my own work, I have shifted from a preoccupation with sustainable development, which is somewhat of an oxymoron, toward the concept of resilience. I think that is the future: to understand how different scales—the household, the community, the school––can structure themselves in a way to become more resilient in the face of the shocks that are inevitable regardless what our goals might be.
You see the climate debate evolving this way. Talk about prevention is on the wane, giving way to talk of adaptation. Adaptation really means resilience. It is about designing actions for dealing with New York City the next time superstorms threaten to paralyze the city or for figuring out what California can do if the current drought continues for many more years, or even decades.
Aspirations and good fortune will get us only so far. Human survival cannot risk reliance on them alone. Tot in acest interviu se afla si o trimtere utila : "En 2014, des recherches menées à l'Université de Melbourne ont confirmé que les prédictions du livre Limits to Growth étaient largement correctes. Actuellement, nous sommes sur le point de suivre le scénario "business-as-usual" du livre (Graham Turner, Is Global Collapse Imminent? An Update to Limits to Growth with Historical Data (Melbourne: Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, 2014),
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/ecoap/about-eco-innovation/research-developments/eu/limits-to-growth-predictions-borne-out-analysis-finds_en.htm)
